The wizard's own forecast — five major weather models, blended by how accurate each has been right here lately. Fewer models see past day 7, so the far column leans on ECMWF and GFS and honesty gets wider.

Every day we check each model's predictions for this spot against what actually happened. Avg miss is how far off it's been (last 3 days); tendency is which way it leans. The most accurate models get the loudest voice in the forecast.

This date at this spot, 1991–2020 (ERA5 reanalysis).